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Research ArticleOriginal Article

A machine learning model to predict efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer based on dynamic changes in systemic immunity

Yusong Wang, Mozhi Wang, Keda Yu, Shouping Xu, Pengfei Qiu, Zhidong Lyu, Mingke Cui, Qiang Zhang and Yingying Xu
Cancer Biology & Medicine March 2023, 20 (3) 218-228; DOI: https://doi.org/10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2022.0513
Yusong Wang
1Department of Breast Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, China
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Mozhi Wang
1Department of Breast Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, China
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Keda Yu
2Department of Breast Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China
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Shouping Xu
3Department of Breast Surgery, Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, Harbin 150081, China
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Pengfei Qiu
4Breast Cancer Center, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Science, Jinan 250117, China
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Zhidong Lyu
5Breast Center, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao 266003, China
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Mingke Cui
6Department of Breast Surgery, Liaoning Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shenyang 110801, China
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Qiang Zhang
6Department of Breast Surgery, Liaoning Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shenyang 110801, China
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  • For correspondence: [email protected] [email protected]
Yingying Xu
1Department of Breast Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, China
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  • ORCID record for Yingying Xu
  • For correspondence: [email protected] [email protected]
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    Figure 1

    Flowchart describing the study design. Logistic regression (LR) was used in feature selection and machine learning (ML) were performed to construct the model. SMOTE, synthetic minority oversampling technique; NAs, not available values.

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    Figure 2

    Forest plots showing the results of feature selection: (A) results of univariate LR for the B-immune function indices; (B) results of multivariate LR of the T-immune indices; (C) results of univariate LR for the T/B-immune indices; (D) results of significant multivariate features screened by univariate LR (P < 0.05). The forest plots showed the P value, hazard ratio (HR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the immune indices.

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    Figure 3

    Comparisons among the 10 ML algorithms based on comparing accuracy and kappa: (A) boxplots presenting the accuracies and kappa values of the 5 models; (B) correlation between kappa and accuracy in the 5 models; (C) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves when applying the random forest model in predicting the internal validation set; (D) ROC curves when applying the random forest model in predicting the external test sets; (E) importance of features in the random forest models. Mean decreases in accuracy and gini (sorted decreasingly from top-to-bottom) of attributes were as assigned by the random forest. RF, random forest; KNNs, k-nearest neighbors; SVMs, support vector machines; CART, classification and regression tree; LDA, linear discriminant analysis; GBM, stochastic gradient boosting machine; gcvearth, multivariate adaptive regression splines; NNET, neural network; MLP, multi-layer perceptron.

Tables

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    Table 1

    Patient characteristics

    Training setTest setTotal
    nPercentagenPercentagenPercentage
    Treatment response
     Non-pCR8887.13%2266.67%11082.09%
     Achieved pCR1312.87%1133.33%2417.91%
    Miller-Payne grade
     G1-G36261.39%1339.39%7555.97%
     G42221.78%824.24%3022.39%
     G51716.83%1236.36%2921.64%
    Ki-67 index (percent)
     ≤ 201716.83%412.12%2115.67%
     > 208483.17%2987.88%11384.33%
    HER2 status
     Positive4645.54%2369.70%6951.49%
     Negative5352.48%1030.30%6347.01%
     Unknown21.98%00.00%21.49%
    Subtype
     TNBC5352.48%1030.30%6347.01%
     HR-HER2+4342.57%2266.67%6548.51%
     HR-HER2+ (at surgery)32.97%13.03%42.99%
     HR-HER2 unknown21.98%00.00%21.49%
    ypN
     ypN05251.49%1957.58%7152.99%
     ypN12120.79%824.24%2921.64%
     ypN21312.87%26.06%1511.19%
     ypN31514.85%412.12%1914.18%
    cT
     cT176.93%26.06%96.72%
     cT27271.29%2884.85%10074.63%
     cT32019.80%26.06%2216.42%
     Unknown21.98%13.03%32.24%
    Chemotherapy regimen
     Chemo (TEC/TAC)7776.24%1030.30%8764.93%
     H/HP-chemo2423.76%2369.70%4735.07%

    HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2; TNBC, triple-negative breast cancer; pCR, pathologic complete response; ypN, pathologic N stage after NAT; H, trastuzumab; P, pertuzumab; T, taxanes; E, epirubicin; A, adriamycin; C, cyclophosphamide; chemo, chemotherapy (including TEC/TAC).

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      Specific termsAbbreviations in figuresAbbreviations in manuscript
      Summation of T, B, NK cell percentagesLymphosum (T+B+NK)Lymphosum (T+B+NK)
      CD4+ helper T cell:CD8+ T cells ratioRatio_CD4+Th/CD8+TCD4+:CD8+ T cell ratio
      CD16+CD56+ natural killer cell percentageCD16+CD56+NK (%)NK cell percentage
      CD16+CD56+ NK cell absolute valueCD16+CD56+NK AbsNK cell Abs
      CD19+ B cell percentageCD19+B (%)B cell percentage
      CD19+ B cell absolute valueCD19+B AbsB cell Abs
      CD3+ T cell percentageCD3+T (%)CD3+ T cell percentage
      CD3+ T cell absolute valueCD3+T AbsCD3+ T cell Abs
      CD3+CD4+ helper T cell percentageCD3+CD4+Th (%)CD4+ Th cell percentage
      CD3+CD4+ helper T cell absolute valueCD3+CD4+Th AbsCD4+ Th cell Abs
      CD3+CD8+ T cell percentageCD3+CD8+T (%)CD8+ T cell percentage
      CD3+CD8+ T cell absolute valueCD3+CD8+T AbsCD8+ T cell Abs
      CD45+ cell absolute valueCD45+ AbsCD45+ Abs
      Total eventsTotal eventsTotal events
      Reagent lot IDReagent lot IDReagent lot ID
      G2G2G2
      Lymph eventsLymph eventsLymph events

    Supplementary Materials

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    Cancer Biology & Medicine: 20 (3)
    Cancer Biology & Medicine
    Vol. 20, Issue 3
    15 Mar 2023
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    A machine learning model to predict efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer based on dynamic changes in systemic immunity
    Yusong Wang, Mozhi Wang, Keda Yu, Shouping Xu, Pengfei Qiu, Zhidong Lyu, Mingke Cui, Qiang Zhang, Yingying Xu
    Cancer Biology & Medicine Mar 2023, 20 (3) 218-228; DOI: 10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2022.0513

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    A machine learning model to predict efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer based on dynamic changes in systemic immunity
    Yusong Wang, Mozhi Wang, Keda Yu, Shouping Xu, Pengfei Qiu, Zhidong Lyu, Mingke Cui, Qiang Zhang, Yingying Xu
    Cancer Biology & Medicine Mar 2023, 20 (3) 218-228; DOI: 10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2022.0513
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    Keywords

    • Breast cancer
    • neoadjuvant therapy
    • peripheral blood lymphocytes
    • machine learning
    • prediction model

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