Nomogram based on albumin-bilirubin grade to predict outcome of the patients with hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma after microwave ablation

Chao An, Xin Li, Xiaoling Yu, et al.

Abstract


Objective: To construct a nomogram based on the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade to provide prognostic value for hepatitis Cvirus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent ultrasound-guided percutaneous microwaveablation (US-PMWA).

Methods: From April 2005 to January 2018, 183 treatment-naïve patients with 251 HCV-related HCCs according to the Milancriteria received US-PMWA subsequently. The overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were compared betweengroups classified by ALBI grade. Cox proportional hazard regression model based on risk factors for survival and recurrence wasused to construct the nomogram.

Results: The cumulative OS rates at 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year were 97.7%, 73.6%, 54.5% and 34.5%, respectively. Stratified accordingto ALBI grade, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in the ALBI grade 1 group and grade 2 group were 99.2%, 92.4%, 77.9% and 97.7%,52.3%, 38.6%, respectively, with significant statistical difference (P < 0.001). No significant statistical difference was detected in the1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rates in the ALBI grade 1 group and grade 2 group (P = 0.220). The major complication rate was 1.6%.Multivariate analysis results showed age, α-fetoprotein level, tumor number, platelet count, location, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP)and ALBI grade were associated with OS, which generated the nomograms. Internal validation with 1000 bootstrapped sample setshad good concordance index of 0.769 (95%CI 0.699-0.839) in OS.

Conclusions: This nomogram based on ALBI grade was a visualization risk model, which could provide personalized prediction oflong-term outcomes for HCV-related HCC patients after US-PMWA.

Cite this article as: An C, Li X, Yu X, Cheng Z, Han Z, Liu F, et al.Nomogram based on albumin-bilirubin grade to predict outcome of thepatients with hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma aftermicrowave ablation. Cancer Biol Med. 2019; 16: 797-810. doi:10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2018.0486


Keywords


Nomogram; albumin-bilirubin grade; hepatitis C virus; hepatocellular carcinoma; microwave ablation

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